| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Holy Cross | 19-17 | 1441.9 | +0.0 | 1441.9 | 41.7% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | L | Maryland | 9-20 | 1441.9 | -34.7 | 1407.2 | 48.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Mississippi State | 10-38 | 1407.2 | -32.0 | 1375.2 | 45.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | San Diego State | 3-6 | 1375.2 | -59.7 | 1315.5 | 63.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 14-25 | 1315.5 | -29.5 | 1286.0 | 27.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Eastern Michigan | 10-16 | 1286.0 | -47.0 | 1239.0 | 62.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Ohio | 21-48 | 1239.0 | -8.6 | 1230.4 | 13.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Ball State | 21-7 | 1230.4 | +37.0 | 1267.4 | 48.5% |
| 12 | Nov 5 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-42 | 1267.4 | -27.3 | 1240.1 | 39.5% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 45-3 | 1240.1 | +40.4 | 1280.5 | 60.2% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 19-35 | 1280.5 | -29.6 | 1250.9 | 28.0% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Kent State | 31-35 | 1250.9 | -63.1 | 1187.8 | 67.8% |